Testing of a foodchain model using Chernobyl 137Cs fallout data and considering the effect of countermeasures

Title: Testing of a foodchain model using Chernobyl 137Cs fallout data and considering the effect of countermeasures

Author: Zitouni Ould-Dada

Reference: Science of The Total Environment, Volume 301, Issues 1–3, 1 January 2003, Pages 225-237

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(02)00285-1

Keywords: Chernobyl; ¹³⁷Cs; Foodchain; Countermeasures; SPADE; Dose assessment; Uncertainty; BIOMASS

Abstract: Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs fallout data obtained during the period 1986–1996 from the most contaminated area in Russia were used within the IAEA BIOMASS programme to test the reliability of radiological assessment models. This model-testing scenario included information and data on countermeasures that were applied in the test area after the accident. This paper presents the predictions of the terrestrial foodchain model SPADE that was used in this model-testing exercise. SPADE predictions compared reasonably well with test data except for pigs and wild berries where differences were up to a factor of 50 and 200, respectively. Estimated intake of ¹³⁷Cs and ingestion dose by adult men and women living in the test area compared favourably with the test data. Overall, SPADE proved to be capable of simulating agricultural countermeasures and their effectiveness. Modelling of countermeasures was found to be a complex process with large uncertainties regarding their ‘real’ implementation and effectiveness. The lessons learned from this exercise will be valuable in making future dose assessments/reconstructions involving countermeasures with improved results.

URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969702002851